• The following is a conversation with Elon Musk,

his fourth time on this, the Lex Friedman Podcast.

(Elon whistling)

War and human nature

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I thought you were gonna finish it.
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(Elon whistling)
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It's one of the greatest
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themes in all film history.
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(whistling continues)
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- Yeah, that's great.
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- So I was just thinking
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about the Roman Empire.
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As one does.
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(Elon laughing)
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- There's that whole meme where old guys
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are thinking about the Roman
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Empire at least once a day.
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- And half the population's confused
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whether it's true or not.
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But more seriously thinking about the wars
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going on in the world today.
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And as you know, war and military conquest
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has been a big part of
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Roman society and culture.
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And it, I think, has been
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a big part of most empires
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and dynasties throughout
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human history, so.
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- Yeah, they usually came
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as a result of conquest.
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I mean, there's some,
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like the Hungarian Empire
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where there was just a lot
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of sort of clever marriages.
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- But fundamentally there's
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an engine of conquest.
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They celebrate excellence in warfare.
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Many of the leaders
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were excellent generals.
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- [Elon] Yeah.
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- That kind of thing.
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So a big picture question, Grok approved,
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I asked if this is a good question to ask.
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- [Elon] Get tested Grok approved.
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- Yeah.
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At least on fun mode.
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(Elon laughing)
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To what degree do you think
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war is part of human nature
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versus a consequence of
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how human societies are structured?
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I ask this as you have
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somehow controversially
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been a proponent of peace.
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- I'm generally a proponent of peace.
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I mean, ignorance is perhaps,
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in my view, the real
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enemy to be countered.
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That's the real hard part.
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Not, you know, fighting other humans.
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But all creatures fight.
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I mean, the jungle is a,
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you look at the, people
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think of this nature
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as perhaps some sort of peaceful thing.
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But in fact it is not.
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There's some quite funny
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Werner Herzog thing
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where he is like in the jungle,
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like saying that it's
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like basically just murder
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and death in every direction.
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I mean, the plants, animals in the jungle
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are constantly trying to kill each other,
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every single day, every minute.
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So it's not like, you know,
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we're unusual in that respect.
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- Well, there's a relevant question here.
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Whether with greater intelligence
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comes greater control
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over these base instincts for violence.
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- Yes.
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We have much more
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vulnerability to control our
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limbic instinct for violence
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than say a chimpanzee.
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And in fact, if one looks and say,
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chimpanzee society, it is not friendly.
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I mean, the Bonobos are an exception,
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but chimpanzee society
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is filled with violence.
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And it's quite, quite horrific, frankly,
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that that's our limbic system in action.
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Like, you don't wanna be on
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the wrong side of a chimpanzee,
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they'll eat your face off
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and tear and nuts off.
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- Yeah, basically, there's
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no limits or ethics
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or there almost had just war.
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There's no just war in
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chimpanzee societies,
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is war and dominance
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by any means necessary.
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- Yeah, chimpanzee society is a pro,
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like a permanent version of human society.
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They're not like peace
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loving basically at all.
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There's extreme violence.
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And then once in a while,
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somebody who's watched
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too many Disney movies
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decides to raise a chimpanzee as a pet,
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and then that eats their
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face or rip their nuts off
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or chew their fingers off
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and that kind of thing.
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It's happened several times.
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- Ripping your nuts off is an interesting
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strategy for interaction.
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- It's happened to
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people. It's unfortunate.
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Like that's, I guess a one way to ensure
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that the other chimp
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doesn't like, you know,
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contribute to the gene pool.
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- Well, from a martial arts perspective
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is the fascinating strategy.
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- (laughing) The nut riper. (laughing)
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- I wonder which of the
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martial arts teaches that one.
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- I think it's safe to say
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if somebody's got your nuts
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in their hands and as the
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option ripping them off,
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you'll be amenable to whatever they want.
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- Yeah.
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(Elon laughing)

Israel-Hamas war

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- So like I said, somehow controversially,
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you've been an proponent
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of peace on Twitter, on X.
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- Yeah.
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- So let me ask you about
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the wars going on today
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and to see what the
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path to peace could be.
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How do you hope the current war in Israel
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and Gaza comes to an end?
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What path do you see
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that can minimize human suffering
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in the long term in
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that part of the world?
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- Well, I think that part of
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the world is definitely like,
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if you look up the,
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there is no easy answer
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in the dictionary.
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It'll be that, like the
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picture of the Middle East,
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in Israel especially.
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So there is no easy answer.
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What my, this is strictly
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my opinion of, you know,
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is that the goal
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of Hamas was to provoke an
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overreaction from Israel.
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They obviously did not
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expect to, you know,
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have a military victory, but they expect,
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they really wanted to
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commit the worst atrocities
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that they could in order to provoke
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the most aggressive response
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possible from Israel.
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And then leverage that aggressive response
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to rally Muslims worldwide
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for the course of Gaza and Palestine,
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which they have succeeded in doing.
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So the counterintuitive thing here,
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I think that the thing that
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I think should be done,
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even though it's very difficult,
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is that I would recommend that Israel
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engage in the most conspicuous
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acts of kindness possible.
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Every po- everything.
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That is the actual thing
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that we're taught the goal of Hamas.
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- So in some sense,
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the degree that makes sense in geopolitics
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turn the other cheek implemented.
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- It's not exactly turn the other cheek.
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Because I do think that there's, you know,
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I think it is appropriate for Israel
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to find the Hamas members
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and, you know, either kill
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'em or incarcerate them.
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Like that's something that's
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something has to be done
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'cause they're just gonna
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keep coming otherwise.
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But in addition to that, they
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need to do whatever they can.
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There's some talk of establishing,
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for example, a mobile hospital.
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I'd recommend doing that.
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Just making sure that, you know,
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there's food, water, medical, necessities,
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and just be over the top about it
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and be very transparent.
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So you can't claim it's a trick.
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Like just put webcam on the
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thing, you know, or 24/7.
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- Deploy acts of kindness.
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- Yeah.
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Conspicuous acts of kindness that,
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with that are unequivocal.
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Meaning they can't be somehow,
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because Hamas will then,
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their response will be, oh, it's a trick.
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Therefore you have to
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counter how it's not a trick.
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- This ultimately fights the broader force
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of hatred in the region.
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- Yes.
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And I'm not sure who said it,
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it's an apocryphal saying,
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but an eye for an eye
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makes everyone blind.
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Now that neck of the woods,
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they really believe in the
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whole eye for an eye thing.
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But I mean, you really have,
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if you're not gonna just
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outright commit genocide,
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like against an entire people,
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which obviously would not
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be acceptable to really
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shouldn't be acceptable to anyone,
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then you're gonna leave
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basically a lot of people alive
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who subsequently, you know, hate Israel.
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So really the question is like,
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how, for every Hamas member that you kill,
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how many did you create?
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And if you create more than you killed,
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you've not succeeded.
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That's the, you know,
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the real situation there.
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And it's safe to say that if, you know,
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if you kill somebody's child in Gaza,
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you've made at least a few Hamas members
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who will die just to kill an Israeli.
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That's the situation.
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So, but I mean,
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this is one of the most
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contentious subjects
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one could possibly discuss.
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But I think if the goal ultimately
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is some sort of long-term peace,
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one has to be, look at this
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from the standpoint of,
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over time, are there more or
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fewer terrorists being created?
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- Let me just linger on war.
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- Yeah, war safe to say,
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wars always existed and always will exist.
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- [Lex] Always will exist,
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- Always has existed
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and always will exist.
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- I hope not. You think it always will?
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- There will always be war.
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This question of just how much war.
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And, you know, there's this,
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there's this sort of the
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scope and scale of war.
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But to imagine that there
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would not be any war
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in the future, I think would
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be a very unlikely outcome.
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- Yeah you talked about
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the Culture series.
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There's war even there.
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- Yes. It's a giant war.
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The first book starts off
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with a gigantic galactic war
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where trillions die, trillions.
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- But it still nevertheless
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protects these pockets
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of flourishing.
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Somehow you can have galactic war
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and still have pockets of flourishing.
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- Yeah.
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I mean it's, I guess if we
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are able to one day expand to,
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you know, the galaxy or whatever,
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there will be a galactic
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war at some point.
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- The scale, I mean the scale
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of war has been increasing,
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increasing, increasing.
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It's like a race between
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the scale of suffering
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and the scale of flourishing.
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- Yes.

Military-Industrial Complex

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1
- A lot of people seem
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to be using this tragedy
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to beat the drums of war
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and feed the military industrial complex.
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Do you worry about this?
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The people who are rooting for escalation
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and how can it be stopped?
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- One of the things that did concerned me
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is that there are very
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few people alive today
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who actually viscerally
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understand the horrors of war,
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at least in the US.
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I mean, obviously there are
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people in on the front lines
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in Ukraine and Russia who understand
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just how terrible war is,
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but how many people in
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the west understand it?
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And my grandfather was in World War II.
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He was severely traumatized.
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He was there, I think for
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almost six years in the,
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in eastern North Africa and Italy.
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All his friends were
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killed in front of him.
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And he would've died too,
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except they randomly gave some,
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I guess, IQ test or something.
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And he scored very high.
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And he was not an officer, he was a,
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I think a corporal or a
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sergeant or something like that.
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Because he didn't finish high school
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because he had to drop outta high school,
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'cause his dad died and he had to work
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to support his siblings.
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So because he didn't graduate high school,
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he was not eligible for the officer corps.
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So, you know, he kind of got
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put into the cannon fodder
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category, basically.
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But then, this, randomly
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they gave him this test.
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He was transferred to British
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intelligence in London.
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That's where he met my grandmother.
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But he had PTSD next
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level, like next level.
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I mean, just didn't
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talk, just didn't talk.
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And if you tried talking to him,
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he'd just tell you to shut up.
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And he won a bunch of medals.
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Never bragged about it once,
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not even hinted, nothing.
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I like found out about it,
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'cause his military records were online.
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That's how I know.
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So he would say like, no way in hell
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do you wanna do that again.
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But how many people, now
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he obviously he died,
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you know, 20 years ago or
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longer, actually 30 years ago.
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How many people are alive
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that remember World War II?
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Not many.
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- And the same perhaps applies
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to the threat of nuclear war.
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- Yeah. I mean, there
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are enough nuclear bombs
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pointed at United States
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to make the revel,
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the radio active revel balance many times.
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- There's two major
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wars going on right now.
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So you talked about the
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threat of AGI quite a bit.
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But now as we sit here with the intensity
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of conflict going on, do
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you worry about nuclear war?
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- I think we shouldn't
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discount the possibility
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of nuclear war.
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It is a civilizational threat.
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Right now I could be wrong,
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but I think the current
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probability of nuclear war
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is quite low.
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But there are a lot of
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nukes pointed at us.
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So, and we have a lot of
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nukes pointed at other people.
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They're still there.
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Nobody's put their guns away.
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The missiles are still in the silos.
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- And the leaders don't
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seem to be the ones
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with the nukes talking to each other.
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- No.
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There are wars which are tragic
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and difficult on a local basis.
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And then there are wars
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which are civilization ending
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or has that potential.
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Obviously global thermonuclear
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warfare has high potential
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to end civilization, perhaps permanently.
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But certainly, you know, to severely wound
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and perhaps set back human progress by,
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you know, to the stone age
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or something, I don't know.
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Pretty bad.
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Probably scientists and
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engineers wanna be super popular
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after that as well.
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And like you got us into this mess.
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- So generally I think we
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obviously wanna prioritize
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civilizational risks over
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things that are painful
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and tragic on a local level,
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but not civilizational.
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War in Ukraine

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1
- How do you hope the war
2
in Ukraine comes to an end?
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And what's the path, once again
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to minimizing human suffering there?
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- Well, I think that
9
what is likely to happen,
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which is really pretty much the way it is,
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is that something very close
14
to the current lines will be
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how a ceasefire or truth happens.
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But, you know, you just
19
have a situation right now
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where whoever goes on the
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offensive will suffer casualties
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at several times the rate
25
of whoever's on the defense.
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'Cause you've got defense in depth,
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you've got minefields,
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trenches, anti-tank defenses.
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Nobody has air superiority.
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'cause the anti-aircraft missiles
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are really far better than the aircraft.
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Like, they're far more of them.
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And so neither side has air superiority.
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Tanks are basically death
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drafts, just slow moving
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and they're not immune
46
to anti-tank weapons.
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So you really just have
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long range artillery
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and infantry ranges.
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It's World War I all over
54
again with drones, you know,
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throwing old drones, some drones there.
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- Which makes the long range artillery
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just that much more accurate and better
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and so more efficient at
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murdering people on both sides.
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- Yeah.
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So it's whoever is, you
68
don't wanna be trying
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to advance from either side,
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'cause the probability of
73
dying is incredibly high.
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So in order to overcome
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defense in depth trenches
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and minefields, you
80
really need a significant
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local superiority in numbers.
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Ideally combined alms
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where you do a fast attack
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with aircraft, a
88
concentrated number of tanks
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and a lot of people.
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That's the only way you're
93
gonna punch through the line.
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And then you're gonna punch through
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and then not have
98
reinforcements just kick you
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right out again.
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I mean, I really recommend people read
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World War I warfare in detail.
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That's rough.
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I mean, the sheer number
109
of people that died there
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was mind boggling.
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- And it's almost impossible
114
to imagine the end of it
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that doesn't look like almost
117
exactly like the beginning
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in terms of what land
120
belongs to who and so on.
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But on the other side of a
123
lot of human suffering death
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and destruction of infrastructure.
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- Yes.
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I mean, the thing that, the reason I,
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you know, proposed some sort of truce
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or peace a year ago
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was because I've predicted
136
pretty much exactly
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what would happen, which
139
is a lot of people dying
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for basically almost no changes in land.
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And this, the loss of the flower
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of Ukrainian and Russian youth.
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And we should have some
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sympathy for the Russian boys
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as well as the Ukrainian boys,
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'cause they, Russian boys didn't ask to be
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on their front line, they have to be.
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So there's a lot of sons not
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coming back to their parents,
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you know, and I think most
160
of 'em don't really have,
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they don't hate the other side.
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You know, it's sort of like
165
as this saying about, like,
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this saying comes from World
168
War I, it's like young boys
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who don't know each
171
other, killing each other
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on behalf of old men
174
that do know each other.
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The hell's the point of that?
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- So Vladimir Zelensky said that he's not,
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or has said in the past,
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he's not interested in
183
talking to Putin directly.
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Do you think he should?
186

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- Yeah.
188
- Sit down man to man,
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lead a leader and negotiate peace?
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- Look, I think I would just recommend
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do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth
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to die in trenches.
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Whether he talks to Putin
199
or not, just don't do that.
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Whoever goes on the offensive
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will lose massive numbers of people
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and history will not
206
look kindly upon them.
207

China

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1
- You've spoken honestly
2
about the possibility of war
3

4
between US and China in the long term.
5

6
If no diplomatic solution
7
is found, for example,
8

9
on the question of Taiwan
10
and one China policy.
11

12
- [Elon] Right.
13

14
- How do we avoid the trajectory
15

16
where these two superpowers clash?
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18
- Well, it's worth reading that book
19

20
on the, difficult to
21
pronounce, the Thucydides trap,
22

23
I believe it's called.
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25
I love war history. I like
26
inside out and backwards.
27

28
There's hardly a battle
29
I haven't read about.
30

31
And trying to figure out like
32
what really was the cause
33

34
of victory in any
35
particular case as opposed
36

37
to what one side or
38
another claim the reason.
39

40
- Both the victory and
41
what sparked the war?
42

43
- Yeah, yeah,
44
- [Lex] The whole thing.
45

46
- Yeah, so that Athens and
47
Sparta is a classic case.
48

49
The thing about the Greek is
50

51
they really wrote down a lot of stuff.
52

53
They loved writing.
54

55
You know, there are lots
56
of interesting things
57

58
that happened in many parts of the world,
59

60
but people didn't write down. (laughing)
61

62
So we don't know what happened,
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64
or they didn't really
65
write with in detail.
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67
They just would say like,
68
we had a battle and we won.
69

70
And like, well what?
71
Can you add a bit more?
72

73
The Greeks, they really
74
wrote a lot. (laughing)
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76
They were very articulate
77
on, they just love writing.
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79
So, and we have a bunch of
80
that writing as preserved.
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So we know what led up
83
to the Peloponnesian War
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between the Spartan and Athenian alliance.
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And we know that they saw it coming.
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I mean, the Spartans didn't write,
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they also weren't very
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verbose by their nature,
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but they did write, but
95
they weren't very verbose.
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They were terse.
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But the Athenians and the
100
other Greeks wrote a line
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and they were like, and
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Sparta was really kinda
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like the leader of Greece.
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But Athens grew stronger
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and stronger with each passing year.
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And everyone's like,
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well that's inevitable
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that there's gonna be a clash
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between Athens and Sparta.
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Well, how do we avoid that?
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And they couldn't.
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They actually, they saw it coming
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and they still could
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not avoid it. (laughing)
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So, you know, at some point
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if there's, if one group,
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one civilization or country
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or whatever exceeds another,
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sort of, like, you know,
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the United States has been the
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biggest kid on the block for,
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since I think around 1890
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from an economic standpoint.
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So the United States
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has been the economic,
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most powerful economic
145
engine in the world,
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longer than anyone's been alive.
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And the foundation of war is economics.
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So now we have a situation in the case
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of China where the economy
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is likely to be two,
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perhaps three times larger
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than that of the US.
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So imagine you're the
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biggest kid on the block
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for as long as anyone can remember.
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And suddenly a kid comes
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along who's twice your size.
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- So we see it coming.
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- [Elon] Yeah.
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- How is it possible to stop?
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Is there some, let me
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throw something out there,
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just intermixing of
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cultures understanding.
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There does seem to be a giant cultural gap
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in understanding of each other.
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And you're an interesting case study
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because you are an American,
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obviously you've done
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a lot of incredible manufacture
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here in the United States,
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but you also work with China.
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- I've spent a lot of time in China
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and met with the leadership many times.
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- Maybe a good question to ask is,
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what are some things about China
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that people don't understand
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positive, just in the culture?
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What's some interesting things
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that you've learned about the Chinese?
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- Well, the sheer number of really smart,
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hardworking people in China is incredible.
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There are really, say like how many smart,
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hardworking people are there in China,
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there's far more of them
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there than there are here.
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I think in my opinion.
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And they've got a lot of energy.
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So I mean, the architecture in China
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that's in recent years is far
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more impressive than the US.
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I mean the train stations, the buildings,
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the high speed rail, everything,
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it's really far more impressive
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than what we have in the US.
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I mean, I recommend
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somebody just go to Shanghai
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and Beijing, look at the buildings
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and go to, you know, take the
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train from Beijing to Xian,
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where you have the terracotta warriors.
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China's got an incredible
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history, very long history.
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And you know, I think arguably the,
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in terms of the use of language
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from a written standpoint,
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sort of one of the oldest,
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perhaps the oldest written language.
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And then China, people
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did write things down.
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So now China historically has always been,
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with rare exception,
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been internally focused.
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They have not been inquisitive.
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They've fought each other.
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There've been many, many civil wars.
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In the three kingdoms war,
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I believe they lost about
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70% of their population.
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So, and that,
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so they've had brutal internal wars,
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like civil wars that make the US Civil War
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look small by comparison.
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So I think it's important to appreciate
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that China is not monolithic.
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We sort of think of like China
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as this sort of one entity of one mind.
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And this is definitely not the case
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from what I've seen,
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and I think most people who
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understand China would agree.
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People in China think about China
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10 times more than they think
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about anything outside of China.
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So it's like 90% of
305
their consideration is,
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you know, our is internal.
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- Well, isn't that a really positive thing
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when you're talking
312
about the collaboration
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and a future piece between superpowers,
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when you're inward facing,
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which is like focusing
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on improving yourself
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versus focusing on...
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- [Elon] Yeah.
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- "Improving" others
325
through military might.
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- The good news, the
328
history of China suggests
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330
that China is not inquisitive.
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Meaning they're not gonna go out
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and invade a whole bunch of countries.
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Now they do feel very strongly,
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you know, so that's good.
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I mean, 'cause a lot of
341
very powerful countries
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have been inquisitive.
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The US is one of the,
346
also one of the rare cases
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that has not been inquisitive.
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Like after World War II,
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the US could have basically taken
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354
over the world in any country.
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Like, we've got nukes,
357
nobody else has got nukes.
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We don't even have to lose soldiers.
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Which country do you want?
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And the United States could
364
have taken over everything.
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Oh wait, at will.
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And it didn't, and the
369
United States actually
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helped rebuild countries.
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So it helped rebuild Europe,
374
you know, helped rebuild Japan.
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This is very unusual behavior,
377
almost unprecedented.
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You know, the US did
380
conspicuous acts of kindness
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382
like the Berlin airlift, you know?
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384
And I think, you know, it's always like,
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well, America's done bad things.
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388
Well, of course America's done bad things.
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But one needs to look at
391
the whole track record.
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393
And just generally, you
394
know, one sort of test
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396
would be how do you treat
397
your prisoners at war?
398

399
Or let's say, you know,
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401
no offense to the Russians, but
402
let's say you're in Germany,
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404
it's 1945, you got the
405
Russian Army coming one side
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407
and you got the French, British,
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and American Army's coming the other side.
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411
Who would you like to
412
be to surrender it to?
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Like, no country is like morally perfect,
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416
but I recommend being a
417
POW with the Americans.
418

419
That would be my choice
420
very strongly. (laughing)
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422
- In the full menu of POWs.
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- Very much so.
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426
And in fact, Wernher von Braun, took,
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428
you know, smart guy was like,
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430
we've got to be captured by the Americans.
431

432
And in fact, the SS was under
433
orders to execute Von Braun
434

435
and all of the German rocket initiatives.
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437
And they narrowly escaped their SS.
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439
They said they were going
440
out for a walk in the woods.
441

442
They left in the middle
443
of winter with no coats.
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445
And they ran like, with no
446
food, no coats, no water.
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448
And just ran like hell and ran west.
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450
And by Sherlock, they, I
451
think his brother found
452

453
like a bicycle or something,
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455
and then just cycled west as fast
456

457
as he couldn't have found a US patrol.
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459
So anyway, that's one way
460
you can tell morality is.
461

462
Where do you wanna be PoW? (laughing)
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464
It's not fun anywhere,
465

466
but some places are
467
much worse than others.
468

469
So anyways, so like America has been,
470

471
while far from perfect,
472
generally a benevolent force,
473

474
and we should always be self-critical
475

476
and we try to be better.
477

478
But anyone with have brain knows that.
479

480
So I think there are some,
481

482
in this way China and the
483
United States are similar.
484

485
Neither country has been
486
acquisitive in a significant way.
487

488
So that's like a, you know,
489
a shared principle I guess.
490

491
Now China does feel very
492
strongly about Taiwan.
493

494
They've been very clear
495
about that for a long time.
496

497
You know, from their standpoint,
498

499
it would be like one of
500
the states is, you know,
501

502
not there like Hawaii
503
or something like that.
504

505
But more significant
506
than Hawaii, you know?
507

508
And Hawaii is pretty significant for us.
509

510
So they view it as really the,
511

512
that there's a fundamental part of China.
513

514
The islander Formosa not Taiwan,
515

516
that is not part of China, but should be.
517

518
And the only reason it hasn't been
519

520
is 'cause the US Pacific Fleet.
521

522
- And as their economic power grows
523

524
and as their military power grows,
525

526
the thing that they're clearly saying
527

528
is their interest will, you
529
know, clearly be materialized.
530

531
- Yes.
532

533
China has been very clear that
534
they'll incorporate Taiwan
535

536
peacefully or militarily,
537

538
but that they will incorporate it
539

540
from their standpoint is 100% likely.
541

542
- You know, something you
543
said about conspicuous
544

545
acts of kindness.
546

547
As a geopolitical policy,
548
it almost seems naive,
549

550
but I'd venture to say
551
that this is probably
552

553
the path forward, how you avoid most wars.
554

555
Just as you say it, it sounds naive,
556

557
but it's kind of brilliant.
558

559
If you believe in the goodness
560

561
of underlying most of human nature.
562

563
It just seems like it
564
conspicuous acts of kindness
565

566
can reverberate through the populace
567

568
of the countries involved.
569

570
- Yeah, well.
571
- [Lex] And deescalate.
572

573
- Absolutely.
574

575
So after World War I,
576
they made a big mistake.
577

578
You know, they basically tried to lump
579

580
all of lamb on Germany
581

582
and, you know, settled Germany
583

584
with impossible reparations.
585

586
And, you know, really, there was a lot of,
587

588
there was a fair, quite a bit of blame
589

590
to go around for World War I,
591

592
but they try to, you know,
593
put it all in Germany.
594

595
And that was, that laid
596
the seeds for World War II.
597

598
So it's a lot of people
599
were not just Hitler,
600

601
a lot of people felt wronged
602

603
and they wanted vengeance
604

605
and they got it.
606

607
- [Lex] People don't forget.
608

609
- Yeah, you know, you
610
kill somebody's father
611

612
or mother or son, daughter,
613
they're not gonna forget it.
614

615
They'll want vengeance.
616

617
So after World War II, they're like, well,
618

619
the Treaty of Versailles was
620
a huge mistake in World War I.
621

622
And so this time, instead of,
623

624
you know, crushing the losers,
625

626
we're actually gonna help
627
'em with the Marshall Plan
628

629
and we're gonna help rebuild Germany.
630

631
We're gonna help rebuild
632
or, you know, Austria
633

634
and the other, you know,
635
Italy and whatnot, so.
636

637
And that was the right move.
638

639
- There's a, it does feel
640
like there's a profound truth
641

642
to conspicuous acts of kindness
643
being an antidote to this.
644

645
- Something must stop the
646
cycle of reciprocal violence.
647

648
Something must stop it
649

650
or it will, you know, it'll never stop.
651

652
Just eye for an eye, tooth for tooth,
653

654
limb for a limb, life for
655
a life, forever and ever
656